ASML likely to cut EUV equipment shipment forecasts significantly for 2024 by about 20–30% / ASML可能顯著下修2024年EUV設備出貨預估約20–30%
2 min readSep 27, 2023
My latest research indicates that ASML may cut EUV equipment shipment forecasts significantly for 2024 by about 20–30% for the following main reasons:
- Apple’s 3nm demand for 2024 would be below expectations. In 2023, Apple’s MacBook and iPad shipments declined significantly by approximately 30% and 22% to 17 million and 48 million units, respectively. The sharp decline is attributed to the end of work-from-home (WFH) demand and diminishing user appeal for the new specifications (Apple Silicon and Mini-LED). Looking ahead to 2024, Apple’s 3nm demand is negatively impacted by the lack of growth drivers for MacBook and iPad.
- Qualcomm’s 3nm demand for 2024 would be lower than expected due to Huawei’s decision to stop sourcing Qualcomm chips and the higher-than-expected penetration rate of Exynos 2400 in Samsung smartphones.
- Demand for Samsung’s 3GAP+ and Intel’s 20A is lower than expected.
- Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix aren’t expected to launch memory expansion plans until 2025–2027.
The current market consensus is that the semiconductor sector will bottom out in 2H23. However, it needs to monitor closely whether this bottoming timeline would be pushed back to 1H24/2Q24.
我的最新調查指出，ASML可能顯著下修2024年EUV設備出貨預測約20–30%，主因：
- Apple的2024年3nm需求低於預期。Apple的MacBook與iPad出貨量在2023年分別顯著衰退約30%與22%至1,700萬部與4,800萬部。顯著衰退原因為WFH需求結束且新規格 (Apple Silicon與Mini-LED) 對使用者的吸引力逐漸下滑。展望2024年，因MacBook與iPad欠缺成長驅動，不利Apple 3nm需求。
- Qualcomm的2024年3nm需求低於預期，原因為華為將停止採購Qualcomm晶片與Exynos 2400在Samsung手機的滲透率高於預期。
- Samsung的3GAP+與Intel的20A需求低於預期。
- Samsung、Micron與SK Hynix最快須至2025–2027才有記憶體的擴產計畫。
目前市場共識為半導體產業將在2H23落底，但需密切觀察落底時間會否推遲到1H24/2Q24。
